WHM wrote:
OK, I am done bloviating.
Well, gee, if we're going to worry about that kind of stuff, I should offer this caveat:
CAUTION: SIGNIFICANT BLOVIATION FOLLOWS
Hope I said something intersting
If you set such a high standard as that, you will silence many of us on this fine forum.
When it comes to U.S.western Allies vs Soviets I think caution is necessary.
Quite agree. Many shades of "maybe".
The point I am trying to make is if there had been a continuation of war in Europe after the defeat of Germany I do not think it would be a obvious conclusion of a Soviet victory.
Agreed -- not obvious at all.
Nor is it obvious, as some "Patton fans" posit, that the US would role all over the Soviets in some form of prelude to Desert Storm.
Much depends on the assumptions used to set-up the conflict. Who starts it? Where, when, how? Does either side have time to prepare, or is it a 'come as you are' party?
If the conflict came right at the end of the fighting against the Germans, the US would be in pretty good shape. US forces were not nearly as exhausted as Soviet forces, either in level of equipment and manpower, nor in morale.
DrBig wrote:
The morale issue is an excellent point. They didn't call it "The Great Patriotic War" for nothing. After the Barbarossa storm was over, Stalin whipped the Red Army into a frenzie with propaganda regarding German atrocities: rape, hangings, executions, etc.
The Soviets had not really pushed the "propaganda" of attrocities on their army. For much of the war they had actually shied away from it. The soldiers had largely seen it with their own eyes through the march westward. The Soviet propaganda machine focussed more on idealized versions of home and family, of patriotic duty, and the "science" of the "new Soviet man". As they started to cross the borders, that is to say AFTER they had seen the attrocities, the propoganda shifted to themes of righteous retribution -- but even here it was often in political terms, punishing the Germans for the insult to the Soviet state -- as it was to do with attrocities. But almost as shocking to the Red Army soldiers as the attrocities they had seen in liberating their own country, was the confrontation with European levels of material wealth as they enterred East Prussia, Czechoslovakia, Austria, even Poland, and ultimately Germany proper. It enraged many Red Army soldiers to no end to think that these people who had so much came into their miserably poor country to make it more miserable and poorer, but it also fatigued them and made them less "politically reliable" to see how much better off the capitalists seemed to be.*
No doubt turning on the Americans and Brits, who had been providing much of the goods that the average Red Army soldier used on a daily basis (dried eggs, SPAM, boots, trucks and jeeps) would have been a further cause of emotional fatigue.
That said, if the clash had been caused by (or could be blamed on) the Americans or the Brits, then the average Ivan would probably have continued with his stoicism, and carried on in the fight. In particular, any attempt to re-arm the Germans would have made a causus beli in many a Soviet's worldview.
More to the points that matter with Micro Armor, a clash between East and West at the close of hostilities with the Germans would have been rather interesting from an equipment and forces match-up.
Both sides would have found an opponant that was more mobile than the Germans had been on an operational level. The US had the capability to be more mobile than the Soviets, with more trucks, more infantry carriers, more self-propelled artillery, and better logistics. But the US did not have the depth of practical experience at sweeping mobile operations to call upon. The US had never managed to encircle a single German division that was not hemmed-in by natural obsticals (like a sea-coast). The Soviets had encircled dozens upon dozens of divisions, corps, and even armies during 1944.
Both would also have found an opponent that was probably less flexible tactically. As much as the popular image of the Soviets is wrapped around human waive attacks, the US infantry was not much better on many occasions. Both armies were somewhat uneven in the quality of their leadership at all levels from platoon through army group.
US artillery was better. More responsive, more accurate, better controlled, and able to deliver volumes of fire that the Germans had not managed for 3 or 4 years. The Soviets would have suffered under their tender administrations. But Soviet artillery, while lacking in the responsiveness of the Americans, had the ability to deliver crushing levels of fire across very wide areas of frontage. Any US forces actually caught by a Soviet fire program would have suffered dearly for it. The receiveing end of these kinds of fires would have been unfamiliar for both armies.
The Soviets would probably have launched in with breakthrough units composed of JSs and ISUs, covered by a level of artillery preparation that the US Army had never really experienced. US Infantry Divisions would have had a hard time of it. But they would probably have faired better than the Germans except in the cases where they got caught fully by the arty prep fires. US Army had tank battalions assigned to almost every infantry division. The Germans infantry divisions never had Panzers assigned to them, and the average German Landser only saw them at railroad depots as they were transiting to somewhere else, while very occasionally having a company of StuGs to back up his own division of troopers.
The US Tank Destroyers might have done particularly well. The doctrine and organization of the TDs had been constructed specifically to counter the kind of attack that the Soviets preferred -- a torrent of medium tanks surging into the rear areas after the line had been breached (by artillery and infantry with heavy tank support). If the US Army applied its TDs per their doctrine, they might have been a very effective counter.
US Armored Divisions might not have done as well. They really only faced a German army that was capable of offensive manuever in the early stages of the Tunisian campaign. By 1945 they had grown accustomed to maneuvering around an opponant that was largely stationary on an operational level. The Soviets were far more accustomed to swirling fluid battles, and had commanders at the corps and army levels (roughly equivelant to division and corps levels for the Americans) who had demonstrated repeated skills in shifting the axis of their attacks, of bluffing and counter-marching, and by-passing or encircling points of opposition. It is quite likely that several of the more aggressive US Armored Divisions would have been been encircled or otherwise cut-off by the combination of their own willingness to stick their necks out, and their low familiarity with the look and feel of a noose.
Now, if you back it off a few years ... say to the timeframe of the Berlin Airlift, you get a different scenario altogether.
By that time the US had eliminated the Tank Destroyers completely from their inventory. The forces of both sides had been drawn down, but the US forces had been drawn down farther ... to a small fraction of their immediate post-war levels. Both US and Soviet units are mostly manned by green recruits -- except for the officer corps, all of the experienced "frontovics" had already gone home.
I would de-rate US performance more than Soviet. Keep all the Soviet heavy tanks and ISUs, cut about half of the Soviet T-34-85s. Toss out most American Sherman 75s, leaving mostly Shermans 76s. There are no TDs to back them up (unless the French show up with some M36s). There are a few Pershings about, but not many. Many infantry companies have only 2 platoons, and most artillery battalions have only 1 firing battery (cronic manpower shortages).
So in 1945 I see the possibilities (and challenges) of facing off against IS-2s and ISU-152s with Sherman 75s backed by M36s and a short ton of 105mm and 155mm howitzers. Or chasing a brigade of T-34s with a battalion of M18s. While in 1948 I'd see have to face IS-3s and ISU-152s with Sherman 76s backed by ... nothing. Or to try to chase T-34s with Shermans or Chaffees.

D@mn, where are my Thunderbolts when I need 'em?
An interesting period for "what-if" games. Many possible scenarios.
*Note: Views on this largely derived from reading "Ivan's War", a recent book describing the perspectives of average Soviets during the war, written after reviewing hundreds of letters between Red Army troops and families recently opened up in the archives, and after conducting more than 100 interviews with surviving war veterans. Really a fascinating read.
http://www.amazon.com/Ivans-War-Life-De ... 928&sr=8-1