Russia V Ukraine

thetourist · Post by **thetourist** » Fri Mar 21, 2014 10:47 pm

I am sure we are all hoping this latest crisis doesn't go hot, but I am wondering if the experts on the forum have done any research about how this scenario would play out. All I have seen so far has been very crude numbers comparisons which the Russians dominate. However, with Russia being such a large country, their forces must be spread relatively thin. That must even the odds somewhat. Thoughts?

Donald M. Scheef · Post by **Donald M. Scheef** » Sat Mar 22, 2014 12:04 am

The Russians do not have to spread their forces over a large area - they are free to concentrate along the borders of Ukraine. If Russia were to attack Ukraine, would Fins, Estonian, Latvians take advantage of this in north-west Russia? Would the Belarus attack from the west? Would Turkey (a NATO country) invade south-western Russia? How about the Chinese attacking northward into Russian Siberia or the Japanese attempting to retake the Habomai Islands? I think the answer to all of these is 'No' and the Russians know this. The only groups really willing to attack Russia are the Islamic Fascists along Russia's southern border, and these have no more liking for Ukraine than for Russia.

The Russians in Georgia and Crimea have pulled off the equivalents of Hitler's Anschluss in Austria and the occupation of the Sudatenland. Now we wonder if Putin can occupy the rest of Ukraine without facing the consequences that Hitler accepted when he took the western half of Poland. Would President Obama finally accept reality as did Neville Chamberlain in 1939?

Don S.

thetourist · Post by **thetourist** » Sat Mar 22, 2014 12:12 am

Good Points Don. I wasn't thinking that other nations would take advantage of forces being moved throughout Russia. What I was looking at primarily was the often cited differences in the size of their armed forces. I wonder what percentage of Russia's military is actually combat ready taking into account the size of their country, garrison duties in places like Georgia and Chechnya etc, border security, readiness and so on. If they invade Ukraine, obviously Ukraine will throw everything they have at them, ready or not. The question is, could Russia conquer Ukraine? I don't think it's as one sided as it's being made out to be.

Begemot · Post by **Begemot** » Sat Mar 22, 2014 3:34 am

Here's my two cents.

From what I can gather, the Ukrainian military is not in good shape. A Ukrainian air unit in Crimea was reported a couple of weeks ago as having only about 10% of their aircraft in a serviceable state. Ukraine's economic conditions being very bad, the government has apparently been starving the military for many years, just as the Russian military was degraded during Yeltsin's rule for the same reasons. From this I would conclude that whatever the Ukrainian military could field would be well below what is on their equipment tally sheets. Training has also undoubtably been neglected due to budget restrictions. The Russians, on the other hand, have been rebuilding their military. I would expect there is a pretty significant qualitative difference here in favor of the Russians.

Another problem for the Ukrainian regime is how reliable is their military? Many units in Crimea abandoned the regime in Kiev and joined the Crimean authorities. Would they see similar defections if faced with a Russian move into mainland Ukraine? I have seen reports that the new Ukrainian authorities have instituted the use of "commissars" (they're being called "morale offiers") staffed with Maidan militants to at least suspect units. This clearly indicates some doubt about loyalty. This only reflects the realities of Ukraine. If the Russians are intervening in Ukraine to save fellow Russians from repression by Ukrainian ultra-nationalists is a Ukrainian officer or conscript from Kharkov or Donetsk going to fight for the government that is repressing his family?

Additionally the new government has authorized the creation of a National Guard of 60,000 men. Their mission combines police, security and military roles. I interpret this as the desire of the new authorities to have an armed force they control to counter any disloyal elements. The Maidan toughs are being encouraged to join this force. Saw some photos yesterday of some of these guys training. It will take a lot of work to build this into a force to face a serious military challenge.

So, in the unlikely event that there is a conflict between Russia and Ukraine, I would expect the Russians to have the advantage, particularly in the predominantly Russian areas of Ukraine, the east and southeast. If the Russians would be foolish enough to drive on Kiev and beyond the Dniepr into the western regions then they would be facing a partisan/guerilla war. This would suit the Bandera inspired West Ukrainians who carried out a 10 year guerilla war against the Soviet authorities in the late 1940s and early 1950's. I can't imagine the Russian authorities wanting a US/EU supported guerilla on their hands.

Noble713 · Post by **Noble713** » Sun Mar 23, 2014 7:22 am

Begemot covers most of the points about Ukraine's lack of combat readiness. A few that I'll add:

-no missile purchases since the Soviet Union collapse. So whatever ordnance their aircraft could deliver is 20+ years old.

-known shortage of basic military essentials such as small arms ammunition. Apparently most of the Soviet stockpiles have been sold off (probably Lord of War-style).

-Ukrainian government reported only 6,000 combat ready troops about a week ago. That's about 1 big brigade, or two smaller ones. Against Russia's 2 divisions (6-8 brigades?) amassed on the border, with the Russian Air Force in support.....yeah, local superiority is firmly in Russia's favor.

Begemot · Post by **Begemot** » Sun Mar 23, 2014 11:18 am

Here is a link to Global Security's website material on the Ukrainian military: http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ ... index.html for more information.

piersyf · Post by **piersyf** » Sun Mar 23, 2014 11:54 am

Well, if you're interested in potential 'what if's' don't forget that Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic have all warned NATO that if they do nothing to support Ukraine, that those countries may act unilaterally. Considering there is a general fear of escalation NATO may 'let' them act alone and provide background support (logistics especially).

Ukraine's airforce has pretty much been nobbled by Russia anyway (Russian journalists have better access to the aircraft than Ukrainian pilots do). Any air assets involved would have to come from further west.

sultanbev · Post by **sultanbev** » Sun Mar 23, 2014 11:19 pm

I have posted Ukrainian Army OOB and TOE in the MicroMark series over at the Wargames Vault.

As has been stated, the Ukrainian army will fail to meet full TOE on mobilisation, but the information is there for those who wish to do what-ifs. The only plus point for the Ukrainians is that they ended conscription at the end of 2013, they have been in the process of switching to a full professional force for some time, although as far as I have been able to find, only the 30th Mechanised Brigade, 13th Air Mobile Battalioon and some elements of the 1st and 17th Tank Brigades are currently full time professional units.

Mark

av8rmongo · Post by **av8rmongo** » Mon Mar 24, 2014 2:56 am

Without a navy anymore Ukraine would be hard pressed to stop Russia anywhere along their coastline. Would the world react if Russia annexed Ukraine's coastal provinces creating a landlocked country which could be vulnerable to further blockade/siege tactics?

TAMMY · Post by **TAMMY** » Mon Mar 24, 2014 4:07 am

The Ukrainian Navy had 15-16 warships (main base Sevastopol) that are no match for a Russian Black Sea fleet of more than 150 ships.

I do not see what may be the interest of Russia in the Ukraine coastline. Even in case of an invasion the land borders of Ukraine are so long that controlling Odessa woul make littlke difference.

shadowspears · Post by **shadowspears** » Mon Mar 24, 2014 7:01 am

I think they will drive on Kiev by May or early Summer using the pretext of restoring the "rightful" President to power. I have not read or heard anything coming out of the Baltics, Poland or Hungary that says they would act on their own, that is interesting.

ed*b · Post by **ed*b** » Mon Mar 24, 2014 7:33 am

Donald, I see Putin's moves in the Crimea as more equivalent to the Saarland (overwhelming support from the people being occupied and former Russian territory). The rest of Ukraine will play the role of Austria, the Baltic States the role of Czechoslovakia, and Poland... Well Poland gets to be Poland again.

whoa Mohamed · Post by **whoa Mohamed** » Mon Mar 24, 2014 9:34 am

I just read today that the govt of Poland has declared that if putin expands his land grab they are prepared to act with Nato or on thier own and one other nation has joined them in that sentiment as of early this evening, Good old Poland the Brave....

av8rmongo · Post by **av8rmongo** » Mon Mar 24, 2014 11:22 am

TAMMY wrote:The Ukrainian Navy had 15-16 warships (main base Sevastopol) that are no match for a Russian Black Sea fleet of more than 150 ships.

I do not see what may be the interest of Russia in the Ukraine coastline. Even in case of an invasion the land borders of Ukraine are so long that controlling Odessa woul make littlke difference.

Not any more. There is one ship that was at sea and is still flying a Ukrainian flag. There are 4 or 5 at anchor away from Sevastopol (but bottled up) which have not declared yet. The ships at Sevastopol have been taken over by the Russians.

The point is the ethnic Russians are most heavily concentrated in the south and along the coastline. If one follows the German model of the 1930's it makes the most sense to go where the people are. Without a navy to threaten the sea lanes of communication then: 1. resupply is much easier (avoids overland routes which may be subject to interdiction) . 2. frees up reserves which might otherwise be required to counter potential Ukrainian counter-attacks in the Crimean or along the coast in the Sea of Azov. 3. allows the Russians to choke Ukrainian trade through the Black Sea weakening their economy.

TAMMY · Post by **TAMMY** » Tue Mar 25, 2014 12:20 am

Aside from Sevastopol, the area with a ethnic Russian majority is in north east Ukarine (Kharkov area). In athe aest and south the Russian are a minority, important but a minority.

To blockade the trade routes the Russian Navy is more than enough. It would be an act of war but less definitive than an invasion.

Anyway I don't think that Russia will invade Ukraine even if the Duma has authorized Putin to use armed force abroad. Putin is using the threat as a men of pressure to keep Ukraine in ts sphere of influence or, at leaat, not openly on western side.

The annexion of Crimea may have some justification, a bit prtestuous may be but followed a referndum, itwas not before it. Moreove Crimea had the status of ndependent Republic inside Ukraine.

There is a weak point in Crimea: sweet water. Theey get potable water by a aquduct coming from mainland Ukraine as the area is very dry in summer. I do not know if Russia may replace it with other sources.