
Pearl Harbor What if?
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Whether she was an advanced AA training ship or target ship.
....she was not a battleship. With her batteries boarded and planked over in her role as target ship, I wonder if her AA got into action. 

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As a target ship, the Utah had the following changes: turrets for the 12-inch guns had the guns removed and the embrasures plated over but the turrets themselves remained. The 5-inch/51 low-angles guns had been removed and their embrasures plated over.
In about 1938, several 5-inch/25 anti-aircraft guns were added above the former 5-inch/51 gallery and at least one quadruple 1.1-inch anti-aircraft mount added. The Utah now served as a combination target and anti-aircraft gunnery training ship. Naval aircraft would make attack runs on the ship and anti-aircraft crews practiced aiming at the aircraft. For obvious reasons, no live ammunition was used during these exercises. Live ammunition was used in firing on towed target sleeves, but this was usually kept under lock except during actual practice firing.
In summer of 1941 at Puget Sound, the turrets were removed and the barbettes covered with flat armor plate. Several 5-inch/38 gun mounts were added on top of the former 12-inch gun barbettes.
On December 07, 1941, Utah would have carried about a dozen 5-inch anti-aircraft guns and may have still mounted the 1.1-inch. As she was struck by a torpedo early in the attack and began to sink almost immediately (no water-tight integrity set) it is doubtful that any of her weapons could have come into action, even if live ammunition had been available.
Don S.
In about 1938, several 5-inch/25 anti-aircraft guns were added above the former 5-inch/51 gallery and at least one quadruple 1.1-inch anti-aircraft mount added. The Utah now served as a combination target and anti-aircraft gunnery training ship. Naval aircraft would make attack runs on the ship and anti-aircraft crews practiced aiming at the aircraft. For obvious reasons, no live ammunition was used during these exercises. Live ammunition was used in firing on towed target sleeves, but this was usually kept under lock except during actual practice firing.
In summer of 1941 at Puget Sound, the turrets were removed and the barbettes covered with flat armor plate. Several 5-inch/38 gun mounts were added on top of the former 12-inch gun barbettes.
On December 07, 1941, Utah would have carried about a dozen 5-inch anti-aircraft guns and may have still mounted the 1.1-inch. As she was struck by a torpedo early in the attack and began to sink almost immediately (no water-tight integrity set) it is doubtful that any of her weapons could have come into action, even if live ammunition had been available.
Don S.
What if? Correction
November 27th, 1941
Admiral Kimmel and General Short and staff are in a meeting and the discussion of an attack on Oahu comes up ( instead of being dismissed ) the thought of an attack is directed more towards Malaya, the Dutch East Indies or the Phillipines. As these locations are not under their command directly they move to what if at Pearl Harbor, Kimmel insists that war may be close but he needs his Patrol planes for when it happens and does not want to wear the planes out on what is the normal 1000 miles range search. General Short insist that the B-18s are to short ranged for Patrol work and he does not have enough B-17s to do the job. After further discussions they agree that steps should be taken.
Kimmel does not want to go to an alert 2 status, but agrees with Short to the following measures:
The Navy will do a limited search pattern out to 500 miles and set the fleet to a increased readiness. The Marine corp will assist the Army with CAP.
The Army will have a limited number of planes for CAP and on a ready stand-by.
That week as planned military runs drills and gets the wrinkles out of details.
December 7th, 1941 The Condor reports a sub operating in the restricted zone. The meassage due to the increased alert reaches Kimmel at 5am. At 6:15 a Navy PBY sends the following "Large wave of aircraft heading towards Oahu" followed later by "I am being attacked Japanese aircraft", this message is sent to Kimmel and Short and they meet at Kimmel's office at 7am, Kimmel dispatches the 4 Marine F-4Fs to north of Oahu, as this being done Short recieves word of a large mass of aircraft heading towards Oahu from Opana point Radar. Almost imediately a report comes in from the Ward of sinking a sub in the restricted area. At 7:30am Marine patrol send message " Hostile aircraft headed your direction , we are engaging"
Air Raid sirens go off at 7:35am and the ships come alive to "Man your stations".
All ships begin steaming operations and ready for action.
Bellows and Wheeler send up all available fighters by 7:50am in all 4 F4Fs and 2 F2As are up along with 24 P-40s and 12 P-36s as the Japanese flight approaches.
The intial 4 F4Fs were jumped by 9 A6Ms and all were shot down, but damaged 2 A6Ms that had to struggle back to the carriers. A radio warning was given by the scout planes that American forces were aloft and the remaining Zeros barrelled in. Nine of the Zeros broke off and headed in to Kanohe. The remaining 32 jumped in a huge dogfight with the American fighters as the bombers headed for their targets. AA fire was intense as the bombers made their runs. The first Torpedo section bore in and scored hits on the Target ship Utah and crusier Raliegh. One more scored on the cruiser Helena. The last five circled and targeted the Battleship California scoring 2 hits. 2 of the planes went down to AA fire. The next 3 sections met heavy AA fire and suffered worst. 3 hits were scored on the Battleship Oklahoma, but damage control effectively kept the ship upright as she settled on the bottom. The Battleship West Virgina suffer 3 hits, she was able to settle on the bottom with counter flooding. The Arizona and Nevada both suffered one hit each. The Kates suffered badly as 4 P-40s and a P-36 tore in to them as the headed out to sea, in all 8 of the 30 were lost to the attacking American Fighters and AA fire. The Dive bombers did much better as they wreaked havoc on the air fields lossing 5 of the 54 aircraft. Next were the high level bombers who tore up the airfields worst and scored several hits on the in board Battleships Maryland, Tennesse, then came the fatal hit on the Arizona. The High level Kates suffed as well losing 5 aircraft to AA and fighters as they left. The Japanese fighters mopped the sky of most of the American fighters and lost 7 planes. After the 1st wave the Japnese lost 27 with 4 more going down on the way back. The American fighters lost 3 F4Fs, 1 F2-As, 19 P-40s and 11 P-35s with additional aircraft lost on the ground. The first wave was over, now the Americans were getting better organized. The remaining fighters that were not shot down, damaged or destroyed were arrmed or rearmed and went up. More men were arriving to their stations and the waht ships could answer the call got up steam.
Lull:
In the lull between waves damage control was working hard on several ships.
California was busy securing water tight doors and counter flooding. There were 2 major fires burning and fire control worked to bring them under control. The Utah rolled over and recue crews were searching for survivors. The Oklahoma came to rest on the bottom. She suffered no bomb hits. The Maryland was fighting several fires from bomb hits. The West Virgina was hard at work to keep her afloat and restore an even kile.
The Tenessee had a dud bomb in her aft turret that had crew frantic about removing it.
The Arizona had a seroius explosion forward that was burning out of control. she had settled in the water apparently sunk.
On the airfields crews were busy trying to get ever fighter they could aloft. The ground crews were also busy arming what bombers they could for a counter strike.
Then the air raid sirens went off again. All fighters were vectored to the north for interception. AA crews manned their guns, ready for the second wave.
2nd Wave:
Coming south at a high speed 35 A6ms headed into the American fighters. This time the American fighters were better organized and 39 P-40s took on the Zeros. Behind them 8 P-40s, 3 P-36s, 7 F4Fs and 3F-2As went high to intercept the bombers.
At Pearl Harbor 3 Destroyers and 2 converted mine sweepers were moving out of the harbor. The Nevada was moving away form her berth to try a sortie out of the harbor as well. The Level Bombers took the blunt of American intercepters and of the 54, 17 went down before they got to their runs. 6 of them went down to AA fire but they hit the Ford Island NAS and wreak havoc on the hangers and planes parked. Next came the Vals which went after the Battleships and concentrated on the Nevada. The Nevada had no choice but to beach herself so she did not block the harbor entrance. 15 of the Vals went down to AA and fighters when it was done. The A6ms zeros lost 9 fighters as well, in all 47 planes were lost.
The Americans launched a counter strike later in the day of 6 B-17s,18 B-18s and 6 A-20s as well as a dozen SBDs and SB2s. The flight found no targets and returned to base. A dozen Destroyers and 3 light cruisers sortied, but were no match for the Japanese force and returned to base.
In my what if the results were close to the historical, but the preparations and alert might have saved the Oklahoma and limited the damage to the West Virgnia. It may very well have inflicted greater losses to the Japanese aircraft, but the results would not have changed much either way.
IRISH
Admiral Kimmel and General Short and staff are in a meeting and the discussion of an attack on Oahu comes up ( instead of being dismissed ) the thought of an attack is directed more towards Malaya, the Dutch East Indies or the Phillipines. As these locations are not under their command directly they move to what if at Pearl Harbor, Kimmel insists that war may be close but he needs his Patrol planes for when it happens and does not want to wear the planes out on what is the normal 1000 miles range search. General Short insist that the B-18s are to short ranged for Patrol work and he does not have enough B-17s to do the job. After further discussions they agree that steps should be taken.
Kimmel does not want to go to an alert 2 status, but agrees with Short to the following measures:
The Navy will do a limited search pattern out to 500 miles and set the fleet to a increased readiness. The Marine corp will assist the Army with CAP.
The Army will have a limited number of planes for CAP and on a ready stand-by.
That week as planned military runs drills and gets the wrinkles out of details.
December 7th, 1941 The Condor reports a sub operating in the restricted zone. The meassage due to the increased alert reaches Kimmel at 5am. At 6:15 a Navy PBY sends the following "Large wave of aircraft heading towards Oahu" followed later by "I am being attacked Japanese aircraft", this message is sent to Kimmel and Short and they meet at Kimmel's office at 7am, Kimmel dispatches the 4 Marine F-4Fs to north of Oahu, as this being done Short recieves word of a large mass of aircraft heading towards Oahu from Opana point Radar. Almost imediately a report comes in from the Ward of sinking a sub in the restricted area. At 7:30am Marine patrol send message " Hostile aircraft headed your direction , we are engaging"
Air Raid sirens go off at 7:35am and the ships come alive to "Man your stations".
All ships begin steaming operations and ready for action.
Bellows and Wheeler send up all available fighters by 7:50am in all 4 F4Fs and 2 F2As are up along with 24 P-40s and 12 P-36s as the Japanese flight approaches.
The intial 4 F4Fs were jumped by 9 A6Ms and all were shot down, but damaged 2 A6Ms that had to struggle back to the carriers. A radio warning was given by the scout planes that American forces were aloft and the remaining Zeros barrelled in. Nine of the Zeros broke off and headed in to Kanohe. The remaining 32 jumped in a huge dogfight with the American fighters as the bombers headed for their targets. AA fire was intense as the bombers made their runs. The first Torpedo section bore in and scored hits on the Target ship Utah and crusier Raliegh. One more scored on the cruiser Helena. The last five circled and targeted the Battleship California scoring 2 hits. 2 of the planes went down to AA fire. The next 3 sections met heavy AA fire and suffered worst. 3 hits were scored on the Battleship Oklahoma, but damage control effectively kept the ship upright as she settled on the bottom. The Battleship West Virgina suffer 3 hits, she was able to settle on the bottom with counter flooding. The Arizona and Nevada both suffered one hit each. The Kates suffered badly as 4 P-40s and a P-36 tore in to them as the headed out to sea, in all 8 of the 30 were lost to the attacking American Fighters and AA fire. The Dive bombers did much better as they wreaked havoc on the air fields lossing 5 of the 54 aircraft. Next were the high level bombers who tore up the airfields worst and scored several hits on the in board Battleships Maryland, Tennesse, then came the fatal hit on the Arizona. The High level Kates suffed as well losing 5 aircraft to AA and fighters as they left. The Japanese fighters mopped the sky of most of the American fighters and lost 7 planes. After the 1st wave the Japnese lost 27 with 4 more going down on the way back. The American fighters lost 3 F4Fs, 1 F2-As, 19 P-40s and 11 P-35s with additional aircraft lost on the ground. The first wave was over, now the Americans were getting better organized. The remaining fighters that were not shot down, damaged or destroyed were arrmed or rearmed and went up. More men were arriving to their stations and the waht ships could answer the call got up steam.
Lull:
In the lull between waves damage control was working hard on several ships.
California was busy securing water tight doors and counter flooding. There were 2 major fires burning and fire control worked to bring them under control. The Utah rolled over and recue crews were searching for survivors. The Oklahoma came to rest on the bottom. She suffered no bomb hits. The Maryland was fighting several fires from bomb hits. The West Virgina was hard at work to keep her afloat and restore an even kile.
The Tenessee had a dud bomb in her aft turret that had crew frantic about removing it.
The Arizona had a seroius explosion forward that was burning out of control. she had settled in the water apparently sunk.
On the airfields crews were busy trying to get ever fighter they could aloft. The ground crews were also busy arming what bombers they could for a counter strike.
Then the air raid sirens went off again. All fighters were vectored to the north for interception. AA crews manned their guns, ready for the second wave.
2nd Wave:
Coming south at a high speed 35 A6ms headed into the American fighters. This time the American fighters were better organized and 39 P-40s took on the Zeros. Behind them 8 P-40s, 3 P-36s, 7 F4Fs and 3F-2As went high to intercept the bombers.
At Pearl Harbor 3 Destroyers and 2 converted mine sweepers were moving out of the harbor. The Nevada was moving away form her berth to try a sortie out of the harbor as well. The Level Bombers took the blunt of American intercepters and of the 54, 17 went down before they got to their runs. 6 of them went down to AA fire but they hit the Ford Island NAS and wreak havoc on the hangers and planes parked. Next came the Vals which went after the Battleships and concentrated on the Nevada. The Nevada had no choice but to beach herself so she did not block the harbor entrance. 15 of the Vals went down to AA and fighters when it was done. The A6ms zeros lost 9 fighters as well, in all 47 planes were lost.
The Americans launched a counter strike later in the day of 6 B-17s,18 B-18s and 6 A-20s as well as a dozen SBDs and SB2s. The flight found no targets and returned to base. A dozen Destroyers and 3 light cruisers sortied, but were no match for the Japanese force and returned to base.
In my what if the results were close to the historical, but the preparations and alert might have saved the Oklahoma and limited the damage to the West Virgnia. It may very well have inflicted greater losses to the Japanese aircraft, but the results would not have changed much either way.
IRISH
Last edited by IRISH on Tue Jun 22, 2010 3:23 am, edited 8 times in total.
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I have a different way to arrive at the sme result without to much chnge in the historical events
The radar at Kahuku Point sigths the approaching planes at 7,02
The duty officer is informed at 7.06 and acts on the sighting.
He tries to raise on radio the approaching planes with no effect so sends a couple of fighters for visual identification.
Considering the relative distances and speeds the alarm from the intercepting fighters should arrives around 7,25-7,30 with the same result suggested by Iriish.
I have a point about the timing of the submarine attack. The minesweeper Condor signalled at 3,57 the presence of a submarine to USS Ward but this one sighted and attacked it at 6,40, reporting the sinking at 6.53. If they had reported the first sighting the rlelvant alarm would have been given quite earlier.
The radar at Kahuku Point sigths the approaching planes at 7,02
The duty officer is informed at 7.06 and acts on the sighting.
He tries to raise on radio the approaching planes with no effect so sends a couple of fighters for visual identification.
Considering the relative distances and speeds the alarm from the intercepting fighters should arrives around 7,25-7,30 with the same result suggested by Iriish.
I have a point about the timing of the submarine attack. The minesweeper Condor signalled at 3,57 the presence of a submarine to USS Ward but this one sighted and attacked it at 6,40, reporting the sinking at 6.53. If they had reported the first sighting the rlelvant alarm would have been given quite earlier.
Ubicumque et semper
Thanks Tammy
Tammy,
Thanks, I had my story reversed and have corrected it. I could go with your version just as well.
IIRISH
Thanks, I had my story reversed and have corrected it. I could go with your version just as well.
IIRISH
I agree SFCMAC
sfcmac;
I completely agree with you on Daniel's comment. He seems to think he is a know all.
I had requested from him where I could get a accurate map of PH and never heard back from him. If you look at history unless the ships were actually able to get under way they would never make it out of the harbor just as the Nevada played out and she had a few boilers lit to begin with.
IRISH
I completely agree with you on Daniel's comment. He seems to think he is a know all.
I had requested from him where I could get a accurate map of PH and never heard back from him. If you look at history unless the ships were actually able to get under way they would never make it out of the harbor just as the Nevada played out and she had a few boilers lit to begin with.
IRISH
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Irish
I have just finished to read a long and detailed article on Pearl Harbour on the french magazine Navires & Histoire. According to it there was not only a problem of boilers lit but of mooring, Only USS Nevada and USS California would be able to move without the hel of tugs due to the way they were moored.
USS California was immediately hit heavily so remained only USS Nevada that started to move at 8,52. At 8.55 moved also USS Neosho that was moored alone like Nevada and California. This was a steam ship and it seems it took more or less the same time of USS Nevada to raise steam.
I do not know if this question of mooring may be true or not, but I think there was a standard procedure that ruled the firing of boilers in harbour. After all the USS Nevada was not ready to move as it had to finish to load the charges for their new 14" shells. It may be that it was able to move simply beacuse was not heavily damaged as the other battleships while all had the boilers in the same conditions.
I have just finished to read a long and detailed article on Pearl Harbour on the french magazine Navires & Histoire. According to it there was not only a problem of boilers lit but of mooring, Only USS Nevada and USS California would be able to move without the hel of tugs due to the way they were moored.
USS California was immediately hit heavily so remained only USS Nevada that started to move at 8,52. At 8.55 moved also USS Neosho that was moored alone like Nevada and California. This was a steam ship and it seems it took more or less the same time of USS Nevada to raise steam.
I do not know if this question of mooring may be true or not, but I think there was a standard procedure that ruled the firing of boilers in harbour. After all the USS Nevada was not ready to move as it had to finish to load the charges for their new 14" shells. It may be that it was able to move simply beacuse was not heavily damaged as the other battleships while all had the boilers in the same conditions.
Ubicumque et semper
California
Tammy:
If I remember right, the Caifornia was hit by 2 torpedos. She did well, but had her hatches open for an inspection so she was a sponge and sank over 3 days. Had she been in a normal condition she may noy have sunk.
IRISH
If I remember right, the Caifornia was hit by 2 torpedos. She did well, but had her hatches open for an inspection so she was a sponge and sank over 3 days. Had she been in a normal condition she may noy have sunk.
IRISH
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Pearl Harbor breakout
Standard proceedures for ships that weren't moored directly to docks was to have sufficient steam capacity to manuever in case of emergency. The Nevada was tied to a permanent mooring post( if that's the right term). In addition, the Officer of the Deck on the Nevada had ordered more boilers lit to take over from the ones that had been in use for some time. This was a couple of hours proir to the attack. Luck or happenstance gave it the chance to get moving.
In addition to the technical problem of 'getting steam up' in the ships, an additional problem would be that a significant portion of the ship's crews were ashore on liberty. The US would be going into battle with either undermanned ships and/or ships with scratch crews. The cruiser my father wound up on had men from six other ships as well as shore personnel. Apparently everybody got on the first ship they saw that was headed for the open sea. That's another real life situation that most Naval rules don't take into account. I think the Navy would have needed several hours warning to be able to pull off an organized sortie.
Groundlber
In addition to the technical problem of 'getting steam up' in the ships, an additional problem would be that a significant portion of the ship's crews were ashore on liberty. The US would be going into battle with either undermanned ships and/or ships with scratch crews. The cruiser my father wound up on had men from six other ships as well as shore personnel. Apparently everybody got on the first ship they saw that was headed for the open sea. That's another real life situation that most Naval rules don't take into account. I think the Navy would have needed several hours warning to be able to pull off an organized sortie.
Groundlber
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Pacfic Fleet warned and at sea
Several who have commented here have stated that should the fleet have been caught at sea much higher losses would have been sustained. I'm wondering if that would actually be the case.
I'll base my comments on the assumption that the military at PH received warning in time to sortie all sea worthy combat vessels (Penn would still be in dry dock and many Auxiliaries would remain in harbor). CAP would be up over the fleet, the harbor, and perhaps over several other fields. The US fleet would be located approximately 20nm south of Oahu.
The Japanese forces are launched on their mission as they were historically. This means the 1st wave has exactly 40 Kates carrying torpedoes. What can they do with them? 1st lets look at what they did historically against non moving targets.
Ship # of torpedo hits
Arizona 1
Oklahoma 5
California 2
Nevada 1
West Virginia 7
Helena 1
Raleigh 1
Utah 2
TOTAL 20
Data taken from USN War Damage Reports at http://www.ibiblio.org/hyperwar/USN/rep/WDR/index.html
A 50% hit rate against stationary targets, putting up minimal AA (at least minimal compared to what the 2nd wave faced).
What would they be able to accomplish now against a maneuvering fleet at sea with much heavier AA and possibly CAP directed at them? Lets look to the example of the Prince of Wales and Repulse. Sources vary on total number of aircraft that attacked these ships but most state some where between 85-95. Of the attacking planes one source states 48 carried torpedoes. Once again the number of hits obtained by these 48 aircraft vary between sources but range from 8-10. Using 10 hits for 48 aircraft the hit rate is 20.8%
The Japanese 1st wave now finds the US fleet south of Oahu and attach. With CAP up and AA manned I’ll assume a 10% attrition rate on the attacking Kates before they launch. If the do just as well as the force that attacked the POW and Repulse, then we should get the following:
40 Kates x10% attrit = 36 Kates x 20.8% hit rate = 7.48 hits (round up to 8 ).
How many battleships are sunk with 8 hits spread out across all the likely targets?
You may argue that it may not matter, as the Japanese would just continue to launch additional strikes until the fleet was sunk. But could they? In the book “Pearl Harbor†by H.P. Willmott the author reviews the possibility of a 3rd wave attacking PH and comes to the conclusion it would not have been feasible. One main reason given is the timing of a 3rd strike would most certainly involve a night recovery and with that a much higher operational loss rate for the returning aircrews (assuming they even find the carriers). Another reason the Japanese could not linger is the fuel situation for the supporting destroyers. Based records of the DD Akigumo, by Dec 8th the Japanese fleet’s DDs would have been in a critical fuel situation. With these 2 factors in mind would Nagumo risk the resources?
I’ll save my thoughts on the effectiveness of the level bombing Kates for another post, but based on their 1 golden BB against the Arizona I don’t think they would fair any better against moving targets at sea.
I'll base my comments on the assumption that the military at PH received warning in time to sortie all sea worthy combat vessels (Penn would still be in dry dock and many Auxiliaries would remain in harbor). CAP would be up over the fleet, the harbor, and perhaps over several other fields. The US fleet would be located approximately 20nm south of Oahu.
The Japanese forces are launched on their mission as they were historically. This means the 1st wave has exactly 40 Kates carrying torpedoes. What can they do with them? 1st lets look at what they did historically against non moving targets.
Ship # of torpedo hits
Arizona 1
Oklahoma 5
California 2
Nevada 1
West Virginia 7
Helena 1
Raleigh 1
Utah 2
TOTAL 20
Data taken from USN War Damage Reports at http://www.ibiblio.org/hyperwar/USN/rep/WDR/index.html
A 50% hit rate against stationary targets, putting up minimal AA (at least minimal compared to what the 2nd wave faced).
What would they be able to accomplish now against a maneuvering fleet at sea with much heavier AA and possibly CAP directed at them? Lets look to the example of the Prince of Wales and Repulse. Sources vary on total number of aircraft that attacked these ships but most state some where between 85-95. Of the attacking planes one source states 48 carried torpedoes. Once again the number of hits obtained by these 48 aircraft vary between sources but range from 8-10. Using 10 hits for 48 aircraft the hit rate is 20.8%
The Japanese 1st wave now finds the US fleet south of Oahu and attach. With CAP up and AA manned I’ll assume a 10% attrition rate on the attacking Kates before they launch. If the do just as well as the force that attacked the POW and Repulse, then we should get the following:
40 Kates x10% attrit = 36 Kates x 20.8% hit rate = 7.48 hits (round up to 8 ).
How many battleships are sunk with 8 hits spread out across all the likely targets?
You may argue that it may not matter, as the Japanese would just continue to launch additional strikes until the fleet was sunk. But could they? In the book “Pearl Harbor†by H.P. Willmott the author reviews the possibility of a 3rd wave attacking PH and comes to the conclusion it would not have been feasible. One main reason given is the timing of a 3rd strike would most certainly involve a night recovery and with that a much higher operational loss rate for the returning aircrews (assuming they even find the carriers). Another reason the Japanese could not linger is the fuel situation for the supporting destroyers. Based records of the DD Akigumo, by Dec 8th the Japanese fleet’s DDs would have been in a critical fuel situation. With these 2 factors in mind would Nagumo risk the resources?
I’ll save my thoughts on the effectiveness of the level bombing Kates for another post, but based on their 1 golden BB against the Arizona I don’t think they would fair any better against moving targets at sea.
Tom
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Re: Pacfic Fleet warned and at sea
Regarding the torpedo attack damage, what was the cause of the misses? I recall that the Japanese had to modify their torpedoes to deal with the comparatively shallow water of pearl (the torps otherwise ploughed into the harbour mud). Has that been factored into your to-hit calcs?