Warsaw Pact Response

[pvt64]

Gents,
My hypothetical moderns campaign setting revolves around the US beginning it's War on Terror after the bombing of the Marine Barracks in Beirut Lebanon in 1983. If in this setting the US is trying to help the US friendly Lebanese Government stand on it's own two feet and eject the terrorist and Syrian elements out of Lebanon with French and UK support. If this involved an invasion of Syria do you think that this would provoke a response by the Warsaw Pact in Europe? Also in the campaign setting, if the Lebanese campaign is successful there would also be invasions of Libya and Iran.

[pvt64]

To be more clear. I do have the Soviets supporting Syria with Airborne and Soviet Naval Infantry, plus a Tank Brigade as the rhetoric heats up. What I meant was Do you think that this spark would cause the Warsaw Pact to roll into Western Europe?

[chrisswim]

Probably not, although it might escalate.
What would the Russian/Soviet forces be doing there, what's their role?

[pvt64]

The Soviet Forces in Syria would be there to prevent an overthrow of the Assad Government.

[chrisswim]

Don't know that the US would invade Syria. If there was compelling evidence that Syria did the bombing, the US would probably reach out to Russia. Let them know of response. During the Cold War, Russia might or might not comply. Probably more a bombing campaign or missiles vs invasion. Invasion would cost the US more, it a more messy sequence, by that US battlefield causalities including deaths.
.
The risk of an escalation holds a high cost, extremely high cost. Could it be a full scale warfare in Europe, could it be WW3?
Russian and the US would want to avoid full scale warfare, if at all possible.

[Cav Dog]

At that time in history, the Soviet Union would have had a difficult time stopping the US from invading Syria. The Russians didn't have the naval capability to operate in the eastern Med and overflight of Turkey, Iran or Iraq would also have been difficult for their Air Force / Airborne units.

Who knows whether they may have started something in Europe to draw NATO forces away from the Med region but that is a pretty risky op to parlay Eastern Europe to save Assad's bacon.

I think a more likely scenario for the US to get into a hot war with the Soviets during that time frame would be the Soviets moving into Iran from Afghanistan either as a pre emptive strike to prevent, or as a result of, the US attacking Iran to remove the Ayatollahs and keep oil flowing to the west. The main contingency for the RDF was based around a hot war in Iran against the Iranians and the Soviets. It could have resulted in a big three way melee which gives some very interesting gaming possibilities.

[jwbolen]

Harold Coyle's book Sword Point is set in a soviet invasion of Iran followed by a US led invasion to stop them with the resulting three sided conflict

[7.62]

Iran-Iraq war was in full swing.

In many respects the West and the Soviets are playing both sides, some more than others but both did it.
I recall the sentiment in Amman in 82 was still distrust of the West but not anti US as such.
UK very pally with Jordan.
The rest of the Gulf is backing Iraq and Syrian is a major player with wide influence.

Cold war is on in Germany with lots of gear on both sides. WW3 was not too far off in 83 IIRC with all the big exercises.

However Soviets are starting to get bogged down in Afghan by then and they are going broke!

I think there could have been a bit of pressure here and there but if the US did roll in there was not much the Soviets would have done in Lebanon.
If it went into Syrian big time I think the oil would have stopped flowing!